Investments on the GSE: Has the foreign investor benefited?

GSE foreign investor

Investors all over the world look out for avenues to put their funds in order to get some returns and the Ghana Stock Exchange is one of the possible options.  In the article “The performance of the GSE vs T-Bills”,published on citifmonline.com on 31st January, 2017, it was revealed that in the long term, the GSE returned marginally better than Treasury bills.

Looking at the GSE from the perspective of a foreign investor takes a different twist. I was in a discussion with an investor who informed me he had invested about USD5 Million on the Ghana Stock Exchange in the last eight years but has lost more than 50% of his investment even though the stock market is returning about 40% Year-To-Date this year (2017). I decided to take a closer look at the figures within that period.

GSE foreign investor _ interbank exchange rate

GSE foreign investor _ inflation year on year

The graphs above depict the performance of the various factors that have impacted the funds placed in the investment over the period. The Ghana Cedi has depreciated more than 70% within the period under consideration while the GSE has returned about 13% on average- More than 5% lower than that of 91 Day Treasury bill.

GSE foreign investor _ GSE return

Putting the investor’s funds into perspective, as shown in the table above, the investor converted $5M to Ghana Cedis, which was GHC6M in 2008. He earned about 13% on the investment on the GSE to about GH¢16M. He then converted this amount to Dollars which as at the end of 2016 stood at about $3.8M. The result is that about 24% of his funds had depleted.

Even though the GSE may be returning positively to local investors, the foreign investor that converts Dollars to Cedis to invest in the local bourse may be making a mistake. The main issue here, after the analysis, is the stability of the cedi.

Managers of the Exchange and all stakeholders must work together to ensure measures are put in place to ensure that the GSE is competitive.

One major action that must be taken seriously is getting a policy in place that will compel multinationals to list. Owners of these multinationals who are mostly foreigners receive their dividends in foreign currencies especially the USD which are shipped out of Ghana’s economy. This puts pressure on the local currency thus contributes to depreciation.

Others include taking a second look at the cap on price changes on the Ghana Stock Market. Market Forces should be allowed fully to determine price changes.

In bigger markets, the stock exchanges communicate the health of their economies, but ours do not tell the full picture as companies are not fully represented.

The GSE needs rebranding, repackaging and fresh ideas to ensure acceptable returns to all investors.

 

Credit: Kofi Busia Kyei (Financial analyst)

Source: citibusinessnews



GSE begin second half of the year with impressive performance

registrars of ghana stock exchange

Just one month into the second half of the year, the year-to-date (YTD) return of the Ghana Stock Exchange has tremendously increased from its half-year figure of 16.31% to 31.99% as of 24th July 2017. To this effect, the percentage gained so far in the month of July alone is fairly equal to the overall percentage achieved by the bourse in the first half of the year. The graph below depicts the monthly trend of GSE YTD return for the year so far.

GSE return 2017
Monthly trend of GSE YTD return

Increased market activity played a major factor for the remarkable performance in July. In particular, the sustained interest of investors in stocks such as Standard Chartered Bank contributed to the successive gains on the exchange. In the month of July alone (between 1st and 24th July), Standard Chartered Bank has gained an additional return of 55.43 %. This exceeds the return of 39.98% it recorded in the first six months of the year. Besides Standard Chartered Bank, other stocks that have made good returns in the 3-week period (between 1st and 24th July) are HFC Bank, Fan Milk Limited, Ghana Oil Company Ltd. (Goil) and Benso Oil Plantation Ltd. (BOPP). Between 1st and 24th July 2017, HFC Bank, Fan Milk Limited, Goil, and BOPP have recorded positive returns of 32.73%, 25.21%, 15.79% and 14.06% respectively.

Despite the continuous impressive performance of the exchange, a number of stocks such as Agricultural Development Bank, Golden Web Limited, Cocoa Processing Company Ltd., Mechanical Lloyd Company Limited and Clydestone (Ghana) Ltd. have still not recorded any positive return in the year so far.

Article: Your savings account not an investment account

Savings _sikasem

Savings consists of the amount left over when the cost of a person’s consumer expenditure is subtracted from the amount of disposable income he earns in a given period of time, according to Keynesian economics, as quoted by Investopedia.

The amount left over is sometimes left in the bank account over a period of time, sometimes over a year.

A recent report published by the Bank of Ghana (BOG) shows Commercial banks in Ghana pay between 3.4% to 16.40% as interest on deposits (savings); an average of 11.20% by all the banks. Click here for full Bank of Ghana Report on the rates.

There are some bank customers who are unaware or careless about these rates and are even happy by just seeing their monies remain in their accounts. However, there are others who complain of receiving minimal interest on their savings while others complain of not receiving at all. The banks are then happier keeping customers’savings with them. In fact, if it tends to span over a long period, banks go the extra mile by offering customers exceptional services such as assigning personal relationship managers.

The BOG report is to guide customers in making decisions regarding their savings/deposits/leftovers and what is being earned on them.

Let’s delve into some reasons people open bank accounts:

  • For Accessibility: To be able to make regular withdrawals during business hours. This is why Banks offer 24/7 ATM service and others for this purpose.
  • For EmergencyPurposes: Money is put aside to cover emergencies. For instance, an unexpected car repair, friends and family requests, loss of job, are supposed to be catered for by emergency funds
  • Savings for Retirement: The earlier this begins, the less the requirement in future. In the period in life when one cannot engage in full time employment, it is necessary that a retirement fund works for you.
  • Saving to make a down payment for House, Car: People save to use as down payment for such facilities. This also provides an avenue for accessing loans. With banks,a better rate could be negotiated if the customer is able to provide a percentage of the cost of the product.
  • Savings to have fun: Another reason to save is to afford the luxury of a vacation.
  • Save for Sinking Funds: Sinking funds are set aside for improvements on car, house and other possessions. This fund can free the emergency fund.
  • To earn interest: The opportunity to earn an interest of “3.4%” is always better than keeping the money under your pillow.
  • Savings for education: Additionally, people save for future education. Masters and doctorates can be achieved by taking the first steps of savings.Children’s education is also a factor to save money.

From the reasons above, it can be noted that apart from savings for accessibility, funds for the other reasons are likely to be kept for up to a year or more. In this case, the left overs.

It is necessary to fish out good returns in order not to lose money, especially to inflation. Therefore, it is better to invest the money.

Again, according to Investopedia, an investment is an asset or item that is purchased with the hope that it will generate income or appreciate in the future. In an economic sense, an investment is the purchase of goods that are not consumed today but are used in the future to create wealth. In finance, an investment is a monetary asset purchased with the idea that the asset will provide income in the future or will be sold at a higher price for a profit.

From the rates published by the BOG, the rates quoted are mostly lower than inflation rates, pointing to loss of purchasing power in real terms.

None of the rates also match up with rates offered by investment firms in the country, making it risky to save money over a long period in a bank account.

Treasury bills, for example, have over the period offered savers/investors cushion on inflation.

Savings _Tbill return

Real return over the years on the 91 day Treasury Bills, though not very impressive, has provided the necessary cushion to protect the purchasing power of investors.

From the graph above, since 2006 to 2016, it is realized that though real return is quiet slim, it’s still better than negative.

The Ghana Stock Market is also an avenue that gives appreciable returns.

Savings _stocks return

Unilever Ghana Ltd, Enterprise Group Ltd, Ecobank Ghana Ltd, Fan Milk Ltd, Benso Oil Plantation Ltd, GOIL and GCB Bank are a few selections of companies listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange that have returned appreciably to investors. An average of 13.65% inflation rate is far below the average return of the seven stocks of 258%, when funds were kept from 2007 to 2016.

Bank savings accounts are not investment accounts. Opening bank accounts should not be the prime motive; how much we earn on our monies should also be of concern to us.

 

Credit: Kofi Busia Kyei (Financial Analyst)

Source: citibusinessnews.com



Performance of stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange

performance of stocks

Investing in stocks is proven to be one of the most lucrative means of building wealth. Stocks may be either listed or unlisted. Unlisted stocks (also known as over-the-counter stocks) are stocks that are not traded on a stock exchange but directly between two parties in a non-standardised form. Listed stocks, on the other hand, are stocks traded on a regulated market or exchange such as the Ghana Stock Exchange. There are currently about 40 listed stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange. These are made up of various industrial sectors such as banking, insurance, manufacturing, mining, and petroleum. Usually, the performance of stocks on the Ghana Stock Exchange is captured by the ‘GSE all-share index’. The GSE all-share index, which can further be represented in a percentage format  (GSE return), reflects the overall performance of all listed stocks on the exchange. Refer to this link for all historical GSE returns (from inception to date).

Besides the GSE all-share index, the performance of stocks can also be measured for each individual stock. The most common means of doing this is by computing the return on the stock based on its share price appreciation (or depreciation) over a period. For instance, if a stock starts trading at the beginning of the year at GH¢2 and closes at the end of the same year at GH¢3, the said stock would be making an annual return of 50%. That is [(3-2)/2] ×100.

In the table below, you will find the historical returns of the various stocks listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange. These figures, covering the past six years, are calculated based on their opening and closing prices for each of the years under study. The average returns for the latest five-year period (2012-2016) are also computed.

See also: Performance comparison of mutual funds in Ghana
Performance of stocks: Historical returns of stocks listed on GSE
COMPANY TRADING SYMBOL RETURN, %
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Latest 5-year average
1 AngloGold Ashanti Depository shares AADS -16.7 4 0 1.9 -1.9 0 0.8
2 Access Bank Ghana ACCESS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 African Champion Industries Limited ACI 0 -12.5 -14.3 -66.7 0 -50 -28.7
4 Agricultural Development Bank ADB N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AngloGold Ashanti Limited AGA 0 8.8 0 0 0 0 1.76
6 Aluworks Limited ALW 8.3 -61.5 0 -60 600 0 95.7
7 Ayrton Drugs Manufacturing Co. Ltd. AYRTN 6.3 5.9 0 5.9 0 -25 -2.6
8 Benso Oil Palm Plantation Limited BOPP 46.7 27.3 129.3 27.7 -38.8 -17.1 25.7
9 CAL Bank Limited CAL -9.4 35.7 162.2 4.1 2 -25.7 34.9
10 Clydestone (Ghana) Limited CLYD -42.9 0 0 -25 0 0 -5
11 Camelot Ghana Limited CMLT -25 16.7 14.3 -25 0 0 1.2
12 Cocoa Processing Company Limited CPC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 Ecobank Ghana Limited EGH (Formally EBG) 6.3 -6.3 87 35.5 -7.6 -8.6 20
14 Enterprise Group Limited EGL -24 26.3 291.7 -6.9 37.1 0 69.6
15 Ecobank Transnational Incorporated ETI -21.4 20 58.3 47.4 -3.6 -63 11.8
16 Fan Milk Limited FML -3.3 50.4 86.5 -20.7 40 51.7 41.6
17 GCB Bank Limited GCB -31.5 13.5 131 13.4 -34.9 -6.1 23.4
18 Guinness Ghana Breweries Limited GGBL -1.9 71.2 136.6 -48.4 -37.8 -18.1 20.7
19 NewGold Issuer Limited GLD N/A N/A -18.8 37 8.9 -0.5 N/A
20 Ghana Oil Company Limited GOIL 10.3 93.8 43.5 19.1 33.3 -21.4 33.7
21 Golden Star Resources Limited GSR -47.1 0 0 -14.9 -15 -2 -6.4
22 Golden Web Limited GWEB -20 0 0 -25 -66.7 0 -18.3
23 HFC Bank (Ghana) Limited HFC 2.3 0 113.3 68.4 -43.8 -15.6 24.5
24 Mega African Capital Limited MAC N/A N/A N/A N/A 33.3 0 N/A
25 Mechanical Lloyd Company Limited MLC 10 36.4 153.3 -26.3 -32.1 -21.1 22.0
26 Produce Buying Company Limited PBC 92.3 -28 -5.6 -29.4 -16.7 -40 -23.9
27 Pioneer Kitchenware Limited PKL -14.3 0 0 0 -16.7 0 -3.3
28 PZ Cussons Ghana Limited PZC N/A -25 338.9 -62 13.3 -35.3 46.0
29 Standard Chartered Bank (GH) Ltd. SCB 0.7 -74.7 29.9 36.2 -19.9 -25.2 -10.7
30 Standard Chartered Bank (GH) Ltd. (Prefrence shares) SCB PREF 0 0 0 5.8 29.1 5.6 8.1
31 Societe Generale Ghana Limited SOGEGH (Formally SG-SSB) -28.1 2.1 56.3 33.3 -20 -22.5 9.8
32 SIC Insurance Company Limited SIC -7 -15 14.7 -5.1 -62.2 -14.3 -16.4
33 Starwin Products Limited SPL -40 66.7 -20 -50 100 -25 14.3
34 Sam Woode Limited SWL 0 0 50 33.3 0 0 16.7
35 Trust Bank (Gambia) Limited TBL -69.9 0 -12.5 -31.4 54.2 -29.7 -3.9
36 Tullow Oil Plc TLW N/A 22.7 -8.1 0 -6 -18.3 -1.9
37 Total Petroleum Ghana Limited TOTAL 98.3 18.5 N/A 20.6 -16.4 -61.2 N/A
38 Transol Solutions Ghana Limited TRANSOL -28.6 -20 -25 0 0 0 -9
39 Unilever Ghana Limited UNIL 16.7 28.3 114.9 -41.6 -20.6 0.1 16.2
40 UT Bank Ghana Limited UTB 14.3 18.8 18.4 -44.4 -60 -70 -27.4

*N/A: Not available, mainly because the company was not listed on the stock market by then


Performance of stocks: Brief observations

According to the data above, the performance of stocks for most listed companies has not been encouraging over the six-year period. For instance, African Champion Industries Limited (ACI), Clydestone Ghana Limited (CLYD), Golden Star Resources Limited (GSR), Golden Web Limited (GWEB), and Transol Solutions Ghana Limited (TRANSOL) never recorded a single positive return throughout the period. Moreover, their latest 5-year average returns were -28.7%, -5%, -6.4%, -18.3% and –9% respectively.

Another key observation from the data has to do with stock volatility. Even though some stocks depict impressive average returns for the latest five-year period, the trend of their annual returns appears to be erratic. A typical example is Aluworks Limited. According to the data, Aluworks’ 5-year average return (95.7%) was contributed by the sole remarkable return (600%) it recorded in 2015. PZ Cussons similarly posted a 5-year average return of 46% which was mainly due to the 338.9% it recorded in 2013.

On the other hand, some listed companies have been consistent in good shape over the six-year period. A few of these stocks, according to the data, include Benso Oil Palm Plantation Limited (BOPP), Ghana Oil Company Limited (GOIL) and Fan Milk Limited (FML). BOPP recorded negative returns for two years (2015 & 2016) and positive returns for the rest of the four years. It further posted a 5-year average return of 25.7%. Similarly, Fan Milk Ltd recorded negative returns in 2011 and 2014, positive returns for the rest of the four years and a splendid 5-year average return of 41.6%. GOIL recorded only one negative return in 2016, with a 5-year average return of 33.7%.

In terms of industrial sectors, the banking and finance stocks seem to perform better than stocks of other sectors. A few studies show that the well-being of an organisation’s industrial sector may impact the performance of its stock. It is due to this reason why investors are advised to invest in industries they are familiar with. Thus, it may be beneficial to look further and compare the performance of stocks according to their industrial sectors. Refer to this link for the historical returns of stocks categorised by their various industrial sectors.

It is essential to note that stocks’ returns based on their price appreciation alone may not constitute their total performance. This is because other factors such as dividend payments and any bonus shares issued by the companies can also be considered. In spite of this, stocks’ returns play key role in terms of their performance rating. At least, we know that the rate of dividend payments by most companies is fairly low as compared to returns on stocks.

Furthermore, one must be cautious when utilising historical results for any financial decision. Although many financial analysts depend much on historical performance of stocks, a few veteran investors caution on such practices. For instance, Warren Buffet once argued that:

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.”

In a nutshell, even though historical results may not guarantee the future performance of stocks, they may still aid investors to have a clear picture of what is happening on the stock market.